Harden cert provisioning failure and write-back

Rate limits no longer inflate ssl_retry_count into an instant FAILED
path. Centralize outcomes in decideProvisioningOutcome, keep ACME
order state on transient and rate-limit errors, bound each Process
tick with a timeout, and block on FOR UPDATE when persisting a
freshly issued certificate.

Signed-off-by: Ludovic Vielle <ludovic@probo.com>
Signed-off-by: Bryan Frimin <bryan@probo.com>

pkg/certmanager/provisioning_error.go

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+// Copyright (c) 2025-2026 Probo Inc <hello@probo.com>.
+//
+// Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+// of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+// in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+// to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+// copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+// furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+//
+// The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in
+// all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+//
+// THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+// IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+// FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+// AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+// LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+// OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+// SOFTWARE.
+
+package certmanager
+
+import (
+	"errors"
+	"strings"
+)
+
+const (
+	ProvisioningErrorDNSCNAME         = "DNS_CNAME"
+	ProvisioningErrorDNSCAA           = "DNS_CAA"
+	ProvisioningErrorACMERateLimited  = "ACME_RATE_LIMITED"
+	ProvisioningErrorACMEInvalidOrder = "ACME_INVALID_ORDER"
+	ProvisioningErrorACMETemporary    = "ACME_TEMPORARY"
+	ProvisioningErrorACMEFailed       = "ACME_FAILED"
+)
+
+func classifyProvisioningError(err error) string {
+	if err == nil {
+		return ""
+	}
+
+	if errors.Is(err, ErrACMERateLimited) {
+		return ProvisioningErrorACMERateLimited
+	}
+
+	if errors.Is(err, ErrOrderInvalid) {
+		return ProvisioningErrorACMEInvalidOrder
+	}
+
+	msg := strings.ToLower(err.Error())
+	switch {
+	case strings.Contains(msg, "cname"):
+		return ProvisioningErrorDNSCNAME
+	case strings.Contains(msg, "caa record"):
+		return ProvisioningErrorDNSCAA
+	case strings.Contains(msg, "status: invalid"), strings.Contains(msg, "order is in unexpected status \"invalid\""):
+		return ProvisioningErrorACMEInvalidOrder
+	default:
+		return ProvisioningErrorACMETemporary
+	}
+}
+
+func provisioningErrorCodePtr(code string) *string {
+	if code == "" {
+		return nil
+	}
+
+	return &code
+}